Deforestation and environmental imbalance in the Amazon
ONE AMAZON ROAD BELT
Ex-ante assessment of the cost-benefit ratio of investments in road infrastructure projects.
The construction of highways in the Brazilian Amazon historically paves the way for rapid occupation and accelerates deforestation in the region. More recently, the expansion of the transport network, including the repaving of emblematic highways such as BR-319, has been announced as a government priority. However, new roads and railways will most likely drive new cycles of deforestation with significant local and regional impacts, including losses for agribusiness that depends on climate regulation and environmental services from the Amazon forest. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate ex-ante the cost-benefit ratio of these investments in time and space to support decision making. This project proposed to investigate both the economic viability and the direct and indirect environmental and social impacts of the main transport infrastructures planned in the Amazon, aiming to scientifically qualify the public debate.
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METHODOLOGY
After surveying the state of the art of the technologies available for mitigation in the AFOLU sector, multi-criteria analyzes and meetings with stakeholders were carried out to prioritize and elaborate the TAPs. After selecting the priority technologies, an extensive analysis of the value chains and barriers to implementation was carried out. Finally, actions and activities were proposed to overcome barriers considering risk analysis, contingency measures and implementation cost estimates.
RESULTS
It is estimated that forest loss in the Ferrogrão logistics basin could reach 65% by 2035. With the transshipment terminal in Matupá, economic losses from CO2 emissions from forestry sources would reach US$1 billion (US$10/ ton CO2) only for Indigenous Lands. Regarding the paving of BR-319, we estimate that accumulated deforestation by 2050 would increase four times compared to the projected historical average. The loss of native vegetation would affect several environmental services, mainly rainfall regulation. This would result in a loss of more than 350 million dollars per year, just in revenue from hydroelectric power generation, soybean cultivation and livestock farming. Our study concludes that a transport infrastructure feasibility study must take into account competition with other routes from a systemic view of their externalities. Therefore, there is a need for integrated modeling studies that consider not only the logistical aspects, but also the socio-environmental costs of projects, individually and jointly, in order to seek solutions that contribute to the sustainable development of the country.
